I’ve been eagerly awaiting this. The civil case from the NY AG against Donald Trump Jr. doesn’t threaten Trump’s freedom, but it could cost him financially. The Manhattan DA’s case, which the SDNY initially turned down, might result in a win, but it may also appear as minor quibbling over events that took place seven years ago.
Jack Smith’s looming federal charges against Trump for unauthorized possession and obstruction of justice have a low level of public interest. From the outset, Trump has successfully framed this as a mere disagreement over document storage. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that the overwhelming evidence will result in a conviction for Trump, but even this won’t sway public opinion against him by November. His die-hard supporters will only view him as a political martyr.
However, the January 6th incident holds a different significance. It was a day that left a deep impact on the nation, similar to September 11th or the Challenger disaster. Everyone can recall exactly where they were when it happened.
The Democrats have skillfully ensured that nobody forgets January 6th. Their committee hearings on the matter garnered viewership akin to NFL games, a testament to how desperate millions of Americans were to understand the appalling events of that day.
The GOP is aware of the potential damage. They’ve tried hard to prevent a proper investigation into the incident. Kevin McCarthy attempted to negotiate with Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a non-partisan commission to probe the insurrection, but this initiative was squashed, presumably under Trump’s orders. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell used his remaining political clout to sway his caucus against it.
The GOP has twisted and turned to recast the deadly riot as valid political discourse, without any supporting evidence. They’ve gone out of their way to frame Trump’s incendiary speech as protected political expression.
Evidence of their awareness of the potential damage to the GOP is clear. On January 7th, McCarthy squarely laid the blame for the insurrection at Trump’s feet. Mitch McConnell also held Trump accountable, highlighting that he could face criminal charges for his actions once out of office.
Now, the GOP’s worst fear is coming to life, right on the eve of their primaries. Their hands are tied, with Trump’s arraignment set for Thursday. This initiates a series of hearings and proceedings.
However, Trump’s base, who make up around 35% of voters, won’t be deterred by this. They’ll support him through the primaries and onto the nomination for President. But this continual media spotlight provides an opportunity for the media to constantly revisit footage from January 6th, keeping the incident fresh in the public’s memory.
Heading into a general election season, Trump is a problematic candidate. He’ll persist with his narrative of being a political martyr to a biased Biden DOJ, which is unpopular with the majority of Americans. The GOP’s attempt at similar strategies in 2022 backfired, with the public growing tired of Trump’s rhetoric and the GOP’s blame-shifting tactics.
Whether or not the case is resolved before the election doesn’t matter, as the hearings will continue throughout the general election season. The GOP won’t just have to defend Trump, they’ll also have to continue asserting that the January 6th insurrection was a covert operation by the FBI. Good luck with that, guys.
