Trump May ‘Royally Screw Up’ the Economy Despite Record-Low Unemployment, Analyst Warns

As former President Donald Trump returns to office, he inherits a robust economic landscape: unemployment is low, inflation is falling, and the stock market is at record highs. Yet Bill Scher of the Washington Monthly warns that Trump’s next term could bring substantial economic risk. According to Scher, Trump’s “self-indulgent” approach to policy-making and reduced constraints in a potential second term raise the likelihood of major missteps that could derail economic stability.

During Trump’s first term, the economy maintained relative stability for its first three years, a success Scher attributes to the restraint imposed by his economic advisors. Scher argues that these advisors prevented Trump from pursuing several impulsive policy ambitions, including large-scale trade wars, which could have had damaging consequences. However, with a second term potentially on the horizon, Trump would face fewer checks on his authority, increasing the chance of policy errors.

“Despite the bravado, Trump is no economic mastermind,” Scher claims. One area of concern is Trump’s proposed plan for across-the-board tariffs, a move Scher cautions could lead to runaway price hikes and substantial political backlash. Scher draws a historical parallel to former President William McKinley, whose tariff policies resulted in a similar backlash.

Trump’s “across-the-board tariff plan,” Scher argues, “may jack up prices high enough to cause a major political backlash,” much like McKinley’s experience. Additionally, Trump’s pledge to crack down on immigration, possibly through mass deportations, could have significant labor market impacts, disrupting workforce availability and negatively affecting economic performance.

Beyond policy concerns, Scher contends that Trump’s personal characteristics—his self-interest, lack of concern for future elections, and disregard for advice—make it more likely he will implement economically harmful policies. “Considering that Trump can never run for president again, doesn’t care about anyone but himself, doesn’t have to worry about the future of the Republican Party and rarely listens to sane advice,” Scher writes, “I see the chances of Trump implementing self-indulgent, economically foolish policies to be high.”

He adds that with likely support from a Republican-controlled Senate and potentially a GOP House, Trump could face minimal resistance to pursuing such policies. Scher also advises that Democrats take an active approach in defending the economic progress achieved under President Joe Biden. Although Biden’s administration has delivered significant improvements—including cooling inflation and steady low unemployment—public perception of the Biden economy has lagged.

Scher believes Democrats cannot rely on Trump’s potential economic mistakes to win over voters; instead, they need to reshape public perception regarding Biden’s economic record. “Democrats can and should tell the true story of the Biden-Harris economic record, how they cleaned up Trump’s mess and handed him back a humming economy,” Scher writes, drawing a parallel to how Barack Obama revitalized the economy before handing it off to Trump.

Scher recommends Democrats “start now and repeat it often” to build credibility around Biden’s economic accomplishments. By doing so, Democrats could counter the narrative that Trump inherits a strong economy by chance, instead highlighting the proactive measures that facilitated the current stability. With Trump’s potential economic policies on the horizon, Scher’s analysis emphasizes the importance of Democrats taking control of the narrative and educating voters on Biden’s economic successes to fortify support for the current administration’s approach.