Conservative columnist David French has predicted that a loss for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election would mark the decline of the MAGA movement he spearheaded nearly a decade ago. In his Sunday column for The New York Times, French argues that without Trump at the helm, the movement lacks a viable successor and is unlikely to maintain its influence in American politics.
French was clear in his assessment, writing, “Attempts to mimic Trump succeed in Republican primaries and deep red jurisdictions, but they fail in swing states and purple districts.” He further explained that Trump’s unique appeal to the MAGA base has not been successfully replicated by other far-right candidates, adding, “Trump is MAGA’s most popular figure, and if he loses, then MAGA has nowhere to go but down.”
Using recent political history as evidence, French pointed to the poor performance of MAGA-aligned candidates in the 2022 midterms. High-profile figures such as Arizona’s Kari Lake, Georgia’s Herschel Walker, and Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano all suffered notable defeats, despite Trump’s endorsement. Even with Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) selected as Trump’s running mate for 2024, French noted that Vance has failed to gain significant traction with voters, signaling the broader struggles of the MAGA movement without its founding leader.
“Trump is peak MAGA, and even peak MAGA hasn’t been able to achieve Mitt Romney’s share of the 2012 popular vote,” French pointed out. “Stronger turnout masked this reality, but Trump has never achieved even 47 percent of the total votes cast.” His analysis suggests that while Trump has maintained a strong base, his overall appeal has never reached the level necessary to command a majority of voters in a national election.
French also dismissed any notion that the end of Trump’s political career would lead to a resurgence of traditional Republican figures like Ronald Reagan, John McCain, or Mitt Romney. “I’m under no illusions that defeating Trump will resurrect Ronald Reagan’s Republican Party — or John McCain’s or Mitt Romney’s,” he stated. He further acknowledged that the influence of Never Trumpers would be minimal in a post-Trump GOP.
Concluding his argument, French suggested, “If Trump loses, MAGA will fade. It will not go away, of course. Reactionary populism is a permanent fixture of American politics, but don’t believe MAGA’s hype. Its national success depends on one man.”