For decades, Republicans have counted on strong support from older voters to make up for their struggles with younger demographics. However, new polling data suggests that this trend might shift in the 2024 election, as Vice President Kamala Harris makes unexpected gains among seniors.
On Thursday, CNN polling expert Harry Enten broke down recent polling data, revealing a significant change in the political landscape. In a striking reversal, Harris now holds a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump among voters aged 65 and older. This is a notable shift from just a few months ago when Trump led among this key demographic by four points in July, when he was still running against President Joe Biden.
This development could have profound implications for the 2024 election, as older voters have historically turned out in higher numbers compared to younger voters. Enten explained that seniors’ political preferences are critical in determining election outcomes due to their high turnout rates.
However, the polling data also reveals a potential downside for Harris: she isn’t performing as well with younger voters as Biden did in 2020. This led to a discussion about whether gaining ground with seniors at the expense of younger voters was a beneficial tradeoff. “It is an excellent tradeoff!” Enten exclaimed during the segment, emphasizing the strategic importance of senior voters.
He went on to explain the demographic breakdown of likely voters, highlighting why Harris’ strength with older voters could be a decisive factor. Voters between the ages of 18 and 29 are projected to make up only 13 percent of likely voters in the 2024 election, whereas voters aged 65 and older are expected to account for 29 percent of the electorate.
“If you’re Kamala Harris, yeah, shed a little bit among younger voters,” Enten said. “If you’re going to shed support anywhere, shed it among younger voters.”
Enten further elaborated on his analysis in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter), where he pointed out that Harris’ lead among older voters is “one reason Harris has a small national lead over Trump.” He added that this could be a “huge development because seniors vote in huge numbers.”
The shift in senior voters’ allegiance to Harris marks a major deviation from past elections, where Republicans have typically enjoyed a consistent edge with this demographic. If Harris can maintain or even expand her lead among older voters, it could represent a pivotal moment in her campaign against Trump.
Political strategists have long recognized the outsized influence of senior voters, who are more likely to show up at the polls compared to younger voters. Harris’s ability to make inroads with this group could dramatically reshape the traditional voting patterns and provide her with a crucial advantage heading into 2024.
While younger voters may not be turning out in the same numbers, Harris’ success with seniors could prove to be the deciding factor in what is shaping up to be a closely contested election. As Enten put it, “Seniors vote in huge numbers,” and Harris’ unexpected strength with this group could be the game-changer that Democrats need.