Harris Has Two Paths to Victory Over Trump in 2024 Election: Washington Post Analysis
Credit: Associated Press
Vice President Kamala Harris now has two potential paths to victory over former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election, according to a new analysis by The Washington Post. The analysis found that Harris, as the presumptive Democratic nominee, has become the favorite to win the White House if the election were held today, based on current polling data.
“For now, that is a game changer,” wrote data scientist Lenny Bronner, who led the analysis. The report highlighted that Harris has gained significant leads in key battleground states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and is rapidly closing the gap in Michigan, where Trump’s lead has shrunk to less than a percentage point. The Washington Post analysts predict that Michigan could soon become a tie, further bolstering Harris’s chances.
Although Trump currently holds a lead in the electoral college tally, the analysis suggests that Harris is competitive in more states that could ultimately deliver the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
Harris’s potential paths to victory involve two key strategies: winning the Rust Belt states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—or securing the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. In contrast, the analysis indicates that Trump would need to win both regions to maintain his path to the White House.
“The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency,” Bronner wrote. “There’s no question something big happened.”
While polls historically underestimated Trump’s support in his previous presidential runs, the Washington Post analysis suggests that Harris’s ability to build momentum in swing states and her potential to win without relying solely on the Rust Belt could be key factors in balancing out that historical trend.
“Our model shows that for Trump to win the White House, he would need to notch victories in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt,” Bronner noted. “But crucially for Harris, she would win by taking just one of those two paths.” The analysis paints a picture of an increasingly competitive race, with Harris’s growing strength in critical states giving her multiple avenues to victory in the 2024 election.
