Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster known for his critiques of his own party, shared a grim outlook on the 2024 election during an interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Thursday. Expressing concern over the Democratic campaign, he noted that his colleagues are growing increasingly anxious about Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances against former President Donald Trump.
Schoen’s remarks came in response to Ingraham’s question about Harris’s campaign tactics. “Doug, I want to ask you about my view that no matter how much supposed ‘joy’ she has in her campaign or how much she loves to cook or she, you know, goes on TikTok, and does podcasts, I mean the facts are, the facts in the end, you can’t, you can’t make up a new set of facts, as per reports AP News.
The facts are what they are, and people are poorer than they were four years ago.” Despite Ingraham’s claim, recent reports indicate household wealth has actually increased since 2020, with some analyses showing that incomes have risen faster than prices during President Joe Biden’s tenure. Nevertheless, Schoen agreed with Ingraham’s assertion that the economy would be the decisive factor.
“Laura, the simple answer to your question is yes,” he replied. “Ultimately, elections, particularly elections at times of high inflation, are about the economy. And if Trump continues to talk about the economy and gives it the emphasis he’s given the southern border, it will only redound to his benefit.”
Schoen’s assessment didn’t stop there. He emphasized that recent polling trends have shown momentum shifting toward Trump, leaving Democratic strategists unsettled. “Look, Laura, you’re right, the polling is all showing movement to Trump,” Schoen acknowledged. “My Democratic friends are very, very nervous. They don’t have a clear strategic idea and Harris herself appears to be flailing around.
For the first time, the oddsmakers are giving a narrow advantage to Trump, not Harris, and I would say the momentum is with Trump and his candidacy in a way that we wouldn’t have anticipated even a week, 10 days ago.” His analysis suggests that the Democratic camp’s growing concern is tied to their inability to present a cohesive economic message or strategy.
As the campaign season intensifies, Schoen’s comments point to a race that is far from settled, with Democrats scrambling to regain ground and Trump gaining unexpected traction in the polls. Whether Harris can turn the tide remains uncertain, but Schoen’s warning highlights a pivotal moment for the party, where economic messaging may hold the key to victory or defeat.