Georgia and Pennsylvania Seen as ‘Must-Win’ States in Harris-Trump Showdown
Source: Bloomberg
The landscape of the 2024 presidential race has shifted dramatically following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris. With the electoral math now recalibrated, two battleground states—Georgia and Pennsylvania—have emerged as pivotal in the contest between Harris and former President Donald Trump.
According to the Wall Street Journal, both campaigns have identified Georgia and Pennsylvania as critical to their overall strategies for reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. While other swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin remain hotly contested, there’s a growing consensus among both Democrats and Republicans that securing victories in Georgia and Pennsylvania is essential.
Democratic strategist and former Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik emphasized the importance of these states, calling them the two major “pivot points” in the 2024 race. “If Trump can win Pennsylvania or Harris can win Georgia, I think they are then overwhelming favorites to win the election,” Sosnik explained. “It’s still possible for Trump to win without Georgia, it’s still possible for Harris to win without Pennsylvania, but it’s a lot more difficult.”
The Trump campaign has reportedly focused on a strategy that prioritizes winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as the easiest path to victory. Securing these three states would give Trump a narrow 271 electoral votes, even if he loses other battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
For the Harris campaign, Georgia and Pennsylvania are also seen as the linchpins to maintaining control of the White House. If Harris can secure wins in both states, she would need just one more victory in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, or Wisconsin to reach 270 electoral votes. Even if Harris lost all but Wisconsin—a state with fewer electoral votes—she would still hit the necessary threshold, assuming Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District stays Democratic.
The significance of Georgia and Pennsylvania has led to massive political spending in these states. The Wall Street Journal reports that both Harris and Trump, along with their allied super PACs, have poured over $85 million into Pennsylvania since Biden exited the race. In Georgia, Trump is outspending Harris, committing $25.4 million to her $17.5 million.
Polls indicate a tight race in both states. According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregated data, Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania. In Georgia, Harris holds a slight lead, though Trump remains within the margin of error. The state, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has only voted Democrat in 2020 since 1996.
Harris’s path to 270 is more varied than Biden’s before he dropped out. While Biden’s campaign relied heavily on holding the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris has made Democrats competitive again in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—states where Biden had not polled ahead of Trump in 2024.
Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s director of battleground states, expressed confidence in the Democratic strategy, telling the Journal, “We have a record of winning close races in these states—and in Pennsylvania and Georgia, our record is stronger than Team MAGA.”
