The final results of the House races reveal a historically narrow Republican majority, raising concerns about the future of the GOP agenda. While the GOP retains control, the majority stands at just 220, compared to the Democrats’ 215, a slight decrease from the previous Congress when Republicans held 222 seats, and Democrats had 213.
In an analysis for the Washington Post, columnist Aaron Blake noted, “Republicans have actually lost ground,” even if the shift was by just one seat. This narrowing majority puts the GOP in a precarious position as they look to push their agenda forward.
Additionally, former President Donald Trump is contributing to the shrinking GOP majority by appointing several Republican House members to White House jobs and Cabinet positions. The vacancies left by these appointments will be filled through special elections, further complicating the GOP’s control.
Blake highlighted that the Republican majority could fall as low as “217-215” depending on the outcome of special elections, which would put them in the same situation as the historically narrow 1917-1919 Congress.
Among the members nominated by Trump is Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who was slated to serve as the attorney general but faced a looming Ethics Committee investigation into allegations involving underage sex and drugs. Although Gaetz denies any wrongdoing, he abruptly withdrew from consideration, further weakening the GOP’s majority. He will not be sworn in on Jan. 3, despite stepping back from the DOJ position.
Trump has also nominated Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), with a special election for his seat scheduled for April 1, just weeks before the end of Trump’s first 100 days in office. In New York, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will vacate her seat for a Trump appointment, but the timing of her resignation leaves the GOP without a clear timeline for filling her vacancy.
The uncertainty means Republicans could face a further seat vacancy into April or May, complicating their efforts to secure a working majority. Blake pointed out that “a 217-215 majority would effectively mean they can’t lose even one Republican vote if all Democrats vote against them.” This leaves little room for error within the GOP. “In other words, buckle up,” Blake concluded. “Trump campaigned and has run his transition like someone who will have huge majorities. But the reality is far different.”